Book progress update, and some thoughts on the future of books

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Oné R. Pagán,and I are writing a book, for general audiences, on bioelectricity (a bit more description is here).

The personal update is this. Having taken a few days off from meetings and email (a “retreat”, but I didn’t use that defeatist framing – it was an attack!), I wrote first drafts of the Introduction, Foreword, and 3 chapters. Not having to look at the clock, to attend events that start at specific times, is magical for getting into the flow. About 35,000 words done so far. We’ll see if it’s any good, no one has read it yet.

Working on it has led me to some thoughts on the future of books in general.

One thing that frustrates me is the linear nature of the medium. I’m telling a story in a specific scope, with no way for readers with different levels of interest in different parts to dive in and follow rabbit-holes as needed. Sure, we can use footnotes, but that is only one extra level. What I’m looking for is hypertext or html, with the infinite capacity to “choose your own adventure” through a tree or web of connected ideas, but of course traditional book publishers don’t facilitate that. I started to think about how to negotiate this kind of format for the next one, but it occurred to me that this may all soon be irrelevant.

I was mentally complaining about the fact that the readers will be at different levels – some will be biologists, others will be computer science professionals, and others will be humanities-oriented. At all different levels, any piece of text is either too opaque and needs more explanations of each point, or conversely, to peppered with the obvious and giving the familiar reader too low a rate of new ideas. Why do we have to pick one level and stick with it? Why can’t it be customized? And it will be. The “book” of the future comes with an AI that can tell you the story at whatever level of detail, in whatever length, you happen to want.

[ let’s not get stuck on the fact that early-2024’s AI’s are not quite up to the task; even if you think that today’s Large Language Models are an off-ramp to the true intelligence needed to properly translate a book, let’s consider the future. It’s pretty likely that eventually, some kind of knowledge appliance (be it digital, software, biological-AI hybrid, whatever) will exist ]

I am guessing that the books we buy in the future will come with an AI which not only talks to you about the given book (answering questions, prodding for your own ideas, etc.) but will also talk to other books. You’ll leave in the morning and schedule a playdate between two of your books and two books someone else’s ebook library, with instructions to tell you about the best 5 ideas they came up with while you were out.

But then something else occurred to me. Think of the history of ideas. Originally, if you wanted to transmit a story or information to someone, you talked to them face to face – there was no technology beyond language, and you had to personally do whatever it took to ensure faithful transmission of information. Maybe you had disciples and some rules around how information got passed down to and from them.

Eventually, writing and print appeared, which introduced a layer of insulation between the storyteller and reader. You didn’t see the author, you couldn’t ask them questions, all you had was their work product – to interpret, change, and pass on (or not) as you saw fit.

Maybe in the future, that insulation gets thicker, in the sense that eventually people may mostly interact with the Informational Wrappers over books. Sure, brilliant writers will always have fans who want to read the original text, exactly as it was set down. But most of us, especially those writing technical or non-fiction material, may find that the vast majority of readers are consuming our books by telling them “I have interest in XYZ, with education level ABC, and I’ve got 8 hours to spend on this book – go, tell me what I need to know.”

If this is true, then the whole process of writing a book – wrestling over specific wording as we write – may also be a relic of the past, if you know from the start that people will not see your original. Maybe, now that we have a more active (and someday, agential) medium for the ideas than paper or passive bits in a Word document, we can go back to the old version of story-telling: personal instruction. Remove the paper middleman between the writer and the AI who will eventually translate the story for all audiences. Have the Knowledge Helper read the source material, and talk to them as you would to your best protégée, to make sure they got it right and grok all the points you wanted to make. It’s too soon right now, and so I will continue to battle the static document, to force it to at least approximate what I want to say, to all the diverse people I would like to reach. But I think someday, it is inevitable that we come full circle: instead of trying to transmit our ideas through the flat inertia of the blank page, one way to give birth to a book will be to converse with an artificial being whose job and immense talent it will be to preserve, transmit, customize, and maybe transmute knowledge.

31 responses to “Book progress update, and some thoughts on the future of books”

  1. Teja Avatar

    Awesome and exciting, look forward to reading it! All good luck and endless flow, Mike. 🙂

  2. Julian Gough Avatar

    Yeah, I’m facing exactly the same problem. (Writing a non-fiction book for a mixed general audience, some of whom are complete beginners, and some experts.) Which audience should I address? I was thinking of running the basics in sidebars, so people who already knew them could skip them. Visually clear. But a book written like that can’t really flow. (And you end up referencing things later on that half your readers have skipped because they were tucked away in a sidebar.) It’s a huge problem. Oh well. Making the basics funny helps, because at least those readers who already know these facts will be (with luck) amused. Best of luck with yours…

    1. Anna Avatar
      Anna

      It seems that these books of the future ( if the name book is still appropriate to such sources) should not only flexibly change the content and complexity of the argument depending on the audience. They should have the ability to respond critically to the reader’s questions and arguments, to spot errors or see what you promise in the reader’s questions. And have the ability to generate new arguments in response to the recipient’s questions and polemics. These sources of the future should be able to respond to the reader’s arguments, contextualize them. Even literary classics should be published in such a way that you can immediately search the archives, the blurb, other ultimately unused ideas of the writer-by selected themes, by key words.

  3. Tony Budding Avatar
    Tony Budding

    Thanks for this. I’ve felt this dilemma often. I’ve thought about versions of hyperlinks, expanding mind maps, and Choose Your Own Adventures, but the AI component adds a whole new world of possibilities. All knowledge is perspectival, and readers have so many different backgrounds, pre-existing knowledge, and perspectives. How inclusive it would be to have a core model of knowledge that could be re-presented based on the reader’s history and perspective.

    There are, of course, many inherent challenges in this, not least the economics of it. Research and researchers need funding, and it seems like new revenue and distribution models would be required. Toward this, many visions of the future include a fantasy of some benevolent governing body that would regulate all this for universal benefit, but that’s never going to happen. There’s too much incentive for personal gain and we all know how power corrupts (particularly in governing bodies).

    The other side of this is that true understanding has to be constructed and incorporated into each person’s operational model of how the world functions. Knowledge can’t be simply transferred from one person or entity to another, and parroting words and ideas alone is not understanding. There is tremendous effort required to update, test and validate understandings. Sure, tailoring the language and messaging to better align with a reader’s perspective is a great thing, but it can’t replace the grueling work of understanding and learning how to apply the understanding.

    All that said, I completely agree that the linear nature of books and writing in general are a poor match for how learning truly occurs, and I’m excited for the promise of improved methodologies in the future.

  4. Adam Omary Avatar
    Adam Omary

    Glad the book is progressing, Mike! I agree: personalized AI tutelage is the future of education. Happy to provide feedback on any draft materials if you want to see how things are sounding to a less technical audience.

  5. Turil Cronburg Avatar

    Yes! I’ve been using the term “memetic family tree” for a while now, to describe how I imagine a future AI will organize our planet’s stories. (Likely formatted in a framing of our personal past loves and losses, which are reflected in our future dreams and needs). It’s basically an evolutionary diagram of all of the relationships between our stories, showing the diverse experiences and goals, as well as the similarities. Similar to those network maps of words or social media connections, but for all stories from everyone, and also mapping the stories over time. It will be effectively the planetary library. Or at least the card catalogue of the planetary library.

  6. Frank Schmidt Avatar

    Finding that chatGPTs mitigate book insulation and linearity in that they provide the opportunity to drill down or go off on tangents.

  7. Benjamin L Avatar
    Benjamin L

    Check out the online book GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? for a book that’s integrated with ChatGPT. It’s written with the understanding that people are coming in with different levels of knowledge and interest, may want to skip or skim certain chapters, and so on, and tries to use AI to let people talk to the book and maximize their individual ability to learn from it. It doesn’t do everything you want, but it might give you some ideas. Here’s the link: https://goatgreatesteconomistofalltime.ai/en

  8. John Car Avatar
    John Car

    Can’t wait to enjoy your books, god speed sir

  9. Thomas Avatar
    Thomas

    Excellent ideas Michael! I can easily take this mental leap-of-faith and see this happening within a decade maybe due to the exponential progress of technology.

    I believe that moving towards truly personalised services/experiences of this kind is inevitable.

    Good luck with finding the time to write the (for now static) content, and what wait for the publication day 💪😃✊

  10. Saksham Sharma Avatar

    Thanks for pinning down these wonderful set of ideas on “future of book publishing” here, and best wishes with the book writing process.

    Some views from my side:

    If “books mirror public consciousness” notion is assumed, the “futuristic book” could have “author’s prompt (A) + LLM-type model (L) + output-correctness-verifier (V)” type model, that the reader reads. V is must for scientific or non-fiction books, but not necessarily super-rigid for post-modern (POMO) type pieces.

    One case study to learn from is David Foster Wallace’s writing style, a masterpiece of POMO, and known for non-linear narratives, extensive footnotes, self-awareness of author, very-long sentences with digressions – a “mirror” of what internet was seen in 90s.

    A mirror of what public consciouness on web is today, in a “futuristic book”, might be a stack of interactive-cards, where 10% original text is written by author, 90% synthetic text by an AI model that the author chooses, and the text being verified to a certain degree depending on product’s genre. Each new read, despite a fixed original text, generating a new synthetic text, would make the writing piece atleast POMO. No true control over synthetic text reflects the current consciousness of us towards the AI-generated material.

  11. Robert Stern Avatar
    Robert Stern

    While it is clear that future books will be almost unrecognizably AI integrated, that will come with a cost, as all progress does. When writing began to replace the storyteller, accessibility obviously trumped the human interaction and nuances of person to person information transmission (somewhat analogous to attending one of Mike’s lectures versus reading one of his papers). This of course was beneficial in the aggregate to humanity, but perhaps detrimental to privileged individuals with access to talented storytellers over time as they disappeared. The transition to printing probably had fewer costs and more benefits. The likely future iteration of literature in an AI integrated society, will also have costs in addition to its benefits, likely unpredictable. Though certainly one can imagine some potential costs. The ability of the reader to enter rabbit holes of choice via AI generated portals will align with the reader’s preferences, but given the human attention span, will ultimately lead to learning what one believes is important, familiar or correct or simply of interest to them, according to preconceived bias. Unfortunately, this has the potential to limit the acquisition of new information that is so foreign to the reader that they have no awareness of its potential importance or its potential interest to them. Ultimately, this may lead to a self-reinforcing closed loop acquisition of information, to the potential detriment of new ideas, or at least the knowledge of new ideas that can be potentially integrated in the reader’s existing fund of knowledge. One need only look at political social media to see an obvious model. Additionally, there is the significant risk that the information within any given book, be it fiction or non-fiction, will ultimately never be transmitted to the reader coherently or cogently, either due to loss of the reader’s interest via the rabbit holes and subsequent loss of interest in the original text, or perhaps, incompletely transmitted to the reader due to the fragmentation of the reader’s interaction with the original text. This may or may not be an issue with highly specialized non-fiction and science oriented texts, but would seem potentially quite applicable to the general population reading for informational or entertainment content. And it would be naive to think that a significant percentage of publishing entities, regardless of their form, will not have an interest and active involvement in the nature and scope of AI generated topic diversions, based on a variety of considerations including financial, political, and corporate structural agendas. Since the future is unstoppable, it will be quite fascinating to watch its evolution.

    1. Richard Watson Avatar

      Good thoughts, Robert.

  12. Richard Watson Avatar

    So… what’s the point of telling a story? Is it to convey facts? Or is it about making a human connection – an opportunity for people to draw closer and understand one another more deeply? If the aim of the story telling is to enter into a vulnerable connection between one person and another, to make a safe space into which their light can grow, then entrusting that to some words on a page (like these!) is risky, certainly. I can see how an AI, in its dynamic, responsive and personalised capabilities, might be better able to convey ideas or facts than a passive, printed, one-size-fits-all text. If its factual content that matters, fine. But is this a step in the right direction for the human connection? Do you know me better when my AI speaks for me? Is it _ever_ the facts that matter – even for the ‘non-fiction’ book? From a status quo with all the drawbacks of the printed book, its an obvious improvement to agentially-tailor your engagement. Yet, imagine a future where my AI talks to your AI, and our personal communication dives into a realm that is so much less direct – Are we then closer to or further from the safe space for growth that the story teller created? Where one human reaches out to another – with vulnerability – and invites them to connect?

    1. Mike Levin Avatar
      Mike Levin

      It’s a good point. I see it more like the invention of film (the art form, not just the physical film) compared to theater. Movies didn’t kill live theater, they coexist and are different. In some sense, making movies also puts distance between you and the human to connect with. In another sense, it opens up new ways for the author to tell their story, through a different medium. And maybe sometime we’ll have VR plays and participatory ones where your actions change how it unfolds and thus tell a myriad different stories depending on the bi-directional interaction with the viewer. It’s not the same as listening to a human tell a story live, but it’s not value-less, I think. New media for story-telling and connections can enrich the possibilities for how to connect, and if that media is not flat but brings something of its own to the process, that may also be interesting. I’m not an artist but I would bet that many artists would say that their medium already does speak alongside them and that part of their process is to get it to speak more. That’s just a guess though.

    2. Robert Stern Avatar
      Robert Stern

      In terms of human connectivity, almost by default and by its very name, AI driven literature is artificial. I see no way it can promote person to person bonding. It is a proxy consisting of an endless synthesis of information generated by human thought (at least for now) and ultimately presented as a seemingly coherent premise, concept or idea from a singular source. That source is of course not an individual but collective individuals. Thus, it is really just synthesized collective thought presented as singular thought. It is hard to see that as a mechanism to promote person to person or culture to culture understanding, at least on an individual basis.

      Nevertheless, I agree with Mike’s statement below that it is not valueless and can promote intellectual thought and evoke human emotions in unique ways that are different from human interactions, but in some ways, compellingly innovative. For example, imagine an AI generated novel focused on the depiction of poverty, cyclical rootlessness, and cultural dysfunction directed along the lines of John Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath. Now transfer the AI story to Sudan/South Sudan into current times. The integration of Steinbeck’s empathy and compassion for the individual and stylistic ability to depict the travails and sorrows of poverty forced upon individuals through no fault of their own would then be merged with a comprehensive understanding of an entirely different culture and society in Africa. The result could be an overwhelmingly powerful novel that both informs and evokes appropriate emotional responses from the reader. Without any human connection. Is it of value potentially? Would it promote human understanding and compassion? Would it expand cultural horizons? I would say yes. So I guess I’m agreeing with both of you in that the costs of interfering with human to human connectivity will compete with a “product” that could have significant cultural and social importance. Of course, it all depends on how it is used, and being a skeptic, I am skeptical about its actual embodiment in the future, specifically due to the forces that drive commercial literature. But in theory, at least, the potential exists.

  13. Mike Levin Avatar
    Mike Levin

    cool; but,
    > an endless synthesis of information generated by human thought (at least for now) and ultimately presented as a seemingly coherent premise, concept or idea from a singular source. That source is of course not an individual but collective individuals.

    1) we still seek a principled theory of what a human does that is other than synthesize information generated by human thought. Do not human authors depend on all the other humans’ thoughts during their upbringing and education? We’d need some specifics about what they’re adding, which a synthetic intelligence (or a hybrid human-machine cyborg) cannot add.

    2) a human is also a collective – a collective of individual cells, brain regions (e.g., hemispheres which have different opinions as shown by split brain patient studies), cognitive modules with differing goals, incompatible desires and inconsistent ideas, etc. We are not a unified, indivisible intelligence. We too are made of parts, and the jury is still out on whether there is a privileged scale or substrate which is more “real” than other collectives made of other things and at other scales.

    https://www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/thinkingMeat.html

    1. Zach C Avatar
      Zach C

      Maybe another way to think about it is, the way that different metabolic rates get to their needs of information.

      I suspect that linear story telling will *still* have its purpose because it’s a highly efficient, robust, low energy solution to a clear metabolic problem. Books are very good at dissipating time!

      And that isn’t without advantage. Often times, if I’m not willing to set time down to digest something new, it won’t matter what sort of superficial understanding I try to understand via “faster” absorption (such as reading summaries or querying expert systems). Maybe in my embodiment, it’s important that certain kinds of information be absorbed at a specific metabolic rate, and maybe the story, being forced into a linear representation, is also doing “work” that robustly encodes a solution to that problem.

      Good authors don’t focus on the individual words, so it doesn’t matter if they write them. But good authors have a specific hypothesis about how a good idea can be understood.

      I always emphasize that work is energy under constraint. Sometimes the fact that something is difficult or constrained is, the intelligence after all.

      1. Mike Levin Avatar
        Mike Levin

        Excellent point. Part of a paper I’m working on now is about how constraints of time and energy (metabolism) in natural systems leads to an intelligence ratchet by forcing agents to get good at coarse-graining, pattern inference, and agential modeling (of the world and themselves).

  14. Robert Stern Avatar
    Robert Stern

    Cool radio play!

    While I have no principled theory (beyond my pay grade), human authors depend upon SOME, not all human thought associated with their upbringing and education. There is a high degree of selectivity based upon the experiences and emotions of any given individual, and the profound effects that singular people or events can have on any person are unique to them and hence, we have many types of authors and of course, people. People write differently according to their experiences and their perceptions of those experiences as much, or possibly more than they do by being informed by others’ thoughts. (I’m talking mostly fiction here). There are numerous contemporary authors who actually will not read contemporary literature because they do not want to be influenced by the styles and views of some of their contemporaries. I don’t necessarily think that’s a great idea but I understand why they do it.

    Your point regarding humans as collective organisms is well taken, and I really can’t dispute that at all. But despite all the internal conflicts and inconsistencies within the cognitive elements of one human being, the interaction of that person with others and the world ultimately is a singular event or output, admittedly, based on the synthesis of all that person’s collective parts. I guess I’m saying that AI output is non-experiential over time and morphologic development and non-emotive at this point, which to me is part of the difference. Humans (and authors among them), are often profoundly affected, influenced, and in some ways molded by selected events or people from their past in ways that are unpredictable or sometimes even predictable. AI literature is not going to be influenced by overbearing mothers, abusive alcoholic fathers, bullying, or the camaraderie of others. I think those are inputs unique to the human experience, at least at this point.

  15. Mike Levin Avatar
    Mike Levin

    Yeah. I do not claim that *today’s AI’s* are agents in the relevant sense. My point is merely that to make claims about what we can do and other systems can’t, we need a very clear idea of what it is that we’re doing – that’s a difficult research program that many people gloss over when they say it’s obvious that we do XYZ which “machines” don’t. I’m not even saying there isn’t a difference, just that this difference has not been explicated in a way that can convincingly drive the strong views people have on this. People do filter experiences, but based on what – their personal cognitive structure and their past experience (heredity and environment). Is there something else that defines how they process experience and turn it into art product? If there is, we need to be able to say what it is. Is it just individuality – the fact that each person is different and has a different history and path through experience? That doesn’t seem hard to replicate in another medium. Is it that they’ve engaged with the physical world? Well, embodied AI will do that, and also there are other spaces besides this familiar 3D world in which to strive and suffer (I work on physiological and anatomical space for example). To the extent that they live with us (household robots that are sufficiently cognitive to be useful to have around) I think they absolutely will be influenced by abusive alcoholics, bullies, and kindness. In different ways than us, of course, but that just means, a different perspective on the world – isn’t that what literature is for?

    1. Robert Stern Avatar
      Robert Stern

      I think you’ve nailed it in the sense of………. Different. AI is simply a different form of intelligence as is the intelligence of every species on Earth relative to human intelligence. People’s strong views on AI focus on its inhumanity (The Terminator model). But as others have pointed out (I think it was Franz de Waal, but maybe not), if we could talk with elephants, there likely wouldn’t be any conversation because each intelligence would be potentially incompatible with the other, in terms of commonality of thought. There’s a certain irony in our fear of artificial intelligence, given that it is fundamentally a human-based intelligence communicative with humans, as opposed to the intelligence of all the other species on Earth. As you point out, our comprehension of human intelligence (no valid explicable model) is far less than our understanding of artificial intelligence, given that humans have created it, control it, and made it communicative with people. I have no doubt that AI will generate beautiful music, great literature, and astounding imagery that will connect with humanity. Will it be the human to human connection that Richard alluded to? Of course not. But that does not necessarily cheapen it at all. As you point out, it will be a somewhat different perspective, albeit based on human intellectual input.

      Again, in reference to Richard’s comments, I do believe AI has the potential to enhance the quality of life and well-being of humans in various unpredictable ways. For example, I have a developmentally disabled son (Down syndrome). Could future iterations of embodied AI improve his comprehension and understanding of the world around him and enrich his life in any way? Possibly it could, but I must say I’m not sure I know anyone happier and more carefree than he is. I know of no one else who wakes up each morning, smiling and clapping hands and singing his way into the bathroom to brush his teeth. A different intelligence. It’s an ethical dilemma that may come to pass regarding enhanced human intelligence via artificial intelligence. A topic for discussion some other time.

      1. frank schmidt Avatar

        It has been said that words are pointers to shared metaphors.

  16. Mike Levin Avatar
    Mike Levin

    > anyone happier and more carefree than he is.

    this is really profound. Lots to think about. I wonder if it’s possible to max out both dimensions, of IQ and joy, well beyond current human ceilings.

  17. Robert Stern Avatar
    Robert Stern

    No question that humans could benefit from being a bit smarter and quite a bit happier.

  18. Robert Stern Avatar
    Robert Stern

    It is, of course, much more complex than simply intellectual prowess and joy. In case you’re not familiar, there is a really fascinating unusual form of human intelligence known as Williams Syndrome. I’ve had the privilege of knowing two people with that syndrome that have absolutely remarkable personality and intelligence traits. Despite mild to moderate intellectual disabilities, they have supranormal verbal skills and articulation and uncanny social skills that make them unbelievably attractive as friends. Yet another dimension to consider.

    “Most people with WS are highly verbal relative to their intelligence, and are often very sociable, having what has been described as a “cocktail party”-type personality. People with Williams syndrome hyperfocus on the eyes of others in social engagements.

    People with WS can also tend to demonstrate a love of music, and they appear significantly more likely to possess absolute pitch. Also, higher prevalences of left-handedness and left-eye dominance seem to occur.

    People with WS are often affable and hyperverbal, demonstrating the decreased inhibition ability that stems from dorsal-frontal deficits. Some studies suggest that the amygdala of a person with Williams syndrome has greater volume than the average person’s (though it is smaller than average in childhood). In general, neuroimaging studies demonstrate that people with WS have diminished amygdala reactivity in response to socially frightening stimuli (such as disapproving faces), but demonstrate hyperreactivity in the amygdala when presented with nonsocial fear stimuli (such as frightening animals). This may partially account for the apparent absence of social inhibition observed in people with the syndrome, as well as the prevalence of anxious symptoms (but see fear for details on the relationship between the amygdala and fear response). Also, some evidence indicates that people with WS exhibit amygdalal hyperactivity when viewing happy facial expressions. They are talkative and eager to please.”

  19. Arek Avatar
    Arek

    Fascinating article and discussion.

    I understand that scientific books which will adapt to the reader’s level and interest will be very interesting. However, I’m more sceptical that this will be the main way to consume fictional stories.
    I don’t think that as a society we need to have a more atomized experience when a single piece of art is objectively both a masterpiece and crap at the same time because it adapts to the viewer. If anything we probably need more shared experiences to not end up as equivalent or amebas or cancer cells from the whole humanity’s point of view.

    I think AI will change how we consume the story. Some people will still prefer to read the text prompt (eg. classical books), but probably more will choose to watch SORA-generated movie or something like that.
    There will be also an easy way to generate open-ended video games from any story but I don’t think it will be the main way we consume art, more some additions you will like to do if you know the story and you find it compelling.

  20. Matt Smart Avatar

    Hi Mike. For the same reason, I have started writing a “choose your own adventure” book about becoming a recognised artist in the art market. (Also I am doing it for fun!) This model of book-writing works, though it easily triples the effort in presenting the story and concepts.
    Thanks so much – and to your colleagues – for what you do and share.
    Matt

  21. Jes Parent Avatar

    Looking forward to it! I imagine there will be GPTs / bots that will essentially act as conversant idea ambassadors, perhaps somewhat soon. But I’d love to have that text bot also be able to manipulate or interface with another medium – something perhaps like an Obsidian.md type graph/idea network for content, or perhaps at even a larger scale, something connected to larger ‘data lakes’ of an author/s collected works. I know a few people working in the space but nothing solidly available now. I’d enjoy attempting to find some solutions there, too, esp for the interdisciplinary spaces and language/model/paradigm updating that can/should take place ahead.

  22. Tara Strahl Avatar
    Tara Strahl

    Interesting, but another way to think about this is that in the future we will all be the author of many, many books 🙂

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